Chapter 3: Theories of International Relations

Summary

You are the Federal Minister of Foreign Affairs for Germany. Iran declares that it has acquired and is ready to test a nuclear weapon. You are facing pressure from several key allies, especially the United States and the United Kingdom, to enter a coalition threatening military force if Iran tests its weapon.

Important background information

• Under strategic NATO nuclear sharing arrangements, there are 10-20 US nuclear warheads in Germany that Germany has the right to deploy.


• Germany, unbeknownst to the international community, has also been developing a small nuclear weapons program under the guise of a nuclear energy program for civilian use, and could likely test a weapon within 6-12 months.


• Israel has implied that an Iranian test would be sufficient provocation for Israel to publicly declare its nuclear status and mobilize weapons.


• Israel has also declared that it will respond to an Iranian strike 'with all means at hand' to ensure Iran cannot launch a second strike.

What do you do?

Take action	Declare Germany's intent to ensure that Iran stays non-nuclear. Secretly accelerate nuclear program, with goal to be ready to test in 3-6 months. Militarize US warheads in case of conflict. (Realism)
Do nothing	Rely on the nuclear taboo. Even if Iran tests a nuclear weapon, they won't violate international norms and use one. And, if Iran doesn't use one, the US and Israel will have no need to use one. Better to keep Germany's hands clean. (Constructivism)
Join the coalition conditionally	Demand the coalition receive UN legitimacy before any action is undertaken. Additionally, back a new international agreement that demands International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) approval before testing any nuclear weapon. (Liberalism)
Stay out of the coalition	Engaging in a war with Iran will be very expensive and will likely cause Germany to suffer an economic hit. Germany's capitalist economy is best served by maintaining international economic agreements but avoiding conflict-prone military commitments. (Marxism)